The packaging industry is constantly evolving, impacted by demographic changes, economic development and consumer demands. How do changes in population and packaging needs impact packaging consumption globally? We catch up with Juan Rodriguez, author of new report The Impact of Population and Demographics on Packaging: Long-term Outlook to 2050, to discuss the key factors impacting demand. Juan is a consultant with over 20 years in market analysis, forecasting and value creation.

Why is it important to look at trends in population and demographics?
We are seeing a shift in population demographics globally, notably toward an ageing population as people are living longer lives due to economic, healthcare and infrastructure changes. There is also a marked difference in population growth between developed and developing countries. Global packaging needs are impacted by these shifts in population and demographics.

What are the key population trends here?
Countries of low economic background are typically predicted to grow in population, whereas developed nations are seen to exhibit an ageing demographic and declining birth rates leading to a population decrease. 

These reduced birth rates are occurring in both developed and developing countries with better education, family planning options and lifestyle changes resulting in couples having fewer children, later in life. 

Increasing life expectancy is shifting the global demographic to an ageing population especially as healthcare improves. 

How do these population trends influence packaging needs? 
Shifts in population growth as well as demographics impact consumer demand and therefore packaging demand. The changes in packaging growth vary depending on the economic development of each country.

Africa and parts of Asia are expected to see high population growth as the economy and infrastructure rapidly develop, with this they are also expected to see high growth in packaging markets.

In more developed nations, packaging penetration is predicted to peak. This, coupled with population declines, will impact the rate of market growth. The rise of ageing populations will see a dramatic shift in healthcare packaging needs.

What is the direction of the packaging industry? How is population development changing its trajectory? 
Along with population growth, as economies develop in lower income countries, the need for, and availability of packaged consumer goods increases. Economic priorities are key and affordability and basic packaging features are most common. Along with this, there is more room for technological packaging advancements and areas of innovation to drive consumption of packaging. In more economically developed countries there is a drive for sustainability, innovation and ‘packaging experience’ whereas less economically developed countries focus on affordability and functionality. 

There is thought to be an increase in development of packaging solutions that are balancing economic practicality and environmental responsibility – advancing alongside technology and e-commerce to focus on the consumer and attempts at being more sustainable. 

Does higher economic development not increase packaging consumption? 
Per capita, developed nations do have a higher rate of packaging consumption with the US consumption in dollars around 17x higher than that in India. This shift in population trends and higher standard of current technological development is what is causing this peak in packaging market penetration and perceived ‘smaller growth’ in the packaging markets. There is high consumption of advanced technology and high-quality packaging driving value, yet not necessarily volume. 

What other current trends are influencing demand? 
Sustainability is a key feature in the packaging market currently, holding more of an influence in high income countries. While some of this sustainability development comes from consumer desire and change in purchasing habits, there are also regulatory pressures. With this we see a demand for biodegradable plastics and recyclable paperboard.

Healthcare and cosmetic packaging is set to rise – especially in high income countries. Food packaging remains a consistent large area but particularly takes a sustainability influence. Lower income countries still focus on practicality and affordability within end-use sectors, and this is particularly prevalent in food packaging.