Packaging Coatings: A Market in Motion

Robert Outram, Consulting Project Director at Smithers, sat down with us to discuss the findings of the new Smithers market study, The Future of Packaging Coatings to 2031. With the sector valued in the billions and facing seismic regulatory change, Rob unpacks where the market is heading and what it means for converters, brand owners, and coatings suppliers alike.

Q: How would you characterise the packaging coatings market right now?
A: It’s a market in genuine transition. Regulatory pressure – particularly from the EU’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation – is forcing the industry to rethink materials and formats it has relied on for decades. At the same time, consumer demand for convenient, well-presented packaged goods keeps growing. Coatings sit right at that intersection: they’re essential for shelf life, aesthetics, and performance, but they also need to become far more sustainable. Barrier coatings alone were worth nearly $10 billion globally in 2025, so the scale of what needs to change is significant.

Q: Which packaging formats are generating the most demand for coatings?
A: Flexible packaging is the largest single segment, accounting for over 42% of coated area in 2025 and valued at nearly $4.7 billion. Its dominance reflects the significant weight and cost advantages it offers over traditional rigid formats like glass and metal. While flexible plastic packaging leads on convenience and cost, it faces mounting regulatory and consumer pressure over its environmental impact. That’s creating real momentum behind paper-based formats, which benefit from being among the most readily recyclable materials available.

Q: What are the dominant coating technologies, and are any losing ground?
A: Extrusion coatings are still the largest segment – around a third of volume demand in 2025 – with polyolefins making up the bulk of that. Water-based coatings are the second largest and growing fast. The technology clearly on the retreat is solvent-based. It’s been declining since 2023 and that trend will accelerate, driven by stricter VOC regulations and a broader shift away from multilayer flexible films toward mono-material and paper-based formats. That said, solvent hasn’t gone away – it still holds the majority of the primer market because water-based and UV-curable technologies haven’t fully closed the performance gap, especially on adhesion to difficult substrates like alu-foil.

Q: Where are the real growth opportunities for coatings suppliers?
A: Several areas stand out. Vacuum deposition coatings – particularly SiOx and AlOx – deliver excellent barrier performance at extremely low coating weights that don’t compromise recyclability, which is a strong selling point. Starbucks rolling out SiOx-lined paper cups across Europe in 2025 is a good example of where this is heading. Water-based acrylics also have strong potential if suppliers can push barrier performance closer to EVOH levels. And in food service, there’s real urgency to replace fluorocarbon coatings with viable alternatives – vegetable-based waxes and water-based acrylics are both candidates.

Q: Which end-use sectors are driving demand?
A: Food remains the dominant end-use – nearly 40% of global volume in 2025 – with beverages not far behind at around 31%. Savoury snacks and confectionery are flagged as the highest growth drivers, which reflects the convenience food trend. The stand-out sector is pharmaceuticals. It’s only around 4.5% of volume today, but it’s forecast to be the fastest-growing end application through to 2031. Pharma packaging is highly regulated and slow to change, but there’s real momentum now to make it more sustainable. PVdC has dominated for years, but alternatives are starting to gain traction.

Q: Which regions are leading the charge on packaging coatings, and where is growth emerging?
A: APAC dominates overall market volume – the region’s population size, rising incomes, and rapid urbanisation make it the engine of global packaging demand. But for coatings innovation specifically, Europe is the most dynamic market right now. The PPWR came into effect in February 2025 with full implementation due by July 2026, and it’s creating urgent demand for new sustainable coating solutions. North America is moving more slowly – EPR frameworks are fragmented and the transition to sustainable packaging lags Europe, although momentum is building at state level. South America and the Middle East and Africa are forecast to see some of the strongest growth rates over the next five years.

Q: Final thought – what’s the single biggest challenge the industry faces?
A: Closing the performance gap between sustainable and conventional technologies, without adding cost. Water-based and radiation-curable systems are improving rapidly, but solvent-based coatings have decades of performance data behind them. The industry needs to move fast – regulation won’t wait – but brand owners and retailers still demand the same shelf life, print quality, and mechanical performance they’ve always had. Coatings suppliers who crack that equation will be very well positioned for the rest of the decade.

Robert Outram is Consulting Project Director at Smithers and major contributor to the new market study on packaging coatings. With a strong technical grounding in chemical science, he brings extensive experience leading major projects across the packaging, materials, coatings and tyres sectors. 

The Future of Packaging Coatings to 2031 is Smithers’ definitive guide to the global packaging coatings market. The study delivers over 100 tables and figures across 340 slides, with market data in tonnage, value, and square metres broken down by packaging type, polymer type, coating technology, coating type, end-use application, and geography. Find out more, download the brochure and request sample pages at the link below: