The Lifecycle of Banknotes to 2030

Table of Contents Key Facts and Figures

The global banknote printing market is expected to increase in value to $17.1 billion in 2029, a CAGR of 5.3% from 2024
In 2023, there were 54.6 billion US banknotes in circulation, with a combined face value of $2.3 trillion.

Despite the growing dominance of contactless payments and digital wallets, banknotes remain indispensable for economic resilience, financial inclusion, cultural identity, and privacy. Towards 2030, the banknote lifecycle will be greatly influenced by the integration of advanced technology, evolving public needs, and a strong emphasis on security, sustainability, and accessibility.

This report maps out the current lifecycle of a banknote, and the steps involved in the design, production and circulation of banknotes. It includes a detailed analysis of each stage in the cash cycle, and focuses on how changes within the banknote industry and geopolitical factors will influence this lifecycle over the next five years.

Key Questions

What forces within the market are driving or hindering banknote use?
Which stages of lifecycle are affected by technological disruptions or developments?
How is the use of digital and physical currencies balanced geographically?
What is the influence of Central Bank Digital Currencies on the lifecycle of banknotes?

This report is essential to:

Organisations active in the printing and distribution of cash
Central banks, state printers and mints
Security print consultants and analysts

About the author
Dr James Wojtyk has over 25 years of extensive experience in scientific research, technology innovation, and strategic leadership across Canadian academic, government, and industrial sectors. For three years Dr Wojtyk headed up Research and Development in Currency at the Bank of Canada, integrating new technologies into banknotes, advising on counterfeit threats and fostering international collaborations - all to drive innovation and security.

Name The Lifecycle of Banknotes to 2030

Date 8/1/2025

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“Technological advancements in materials have also extended the physical and functional lifespan of banknotes. New substrates are more resistant to wear and environmental damage, and they incorporate features that facilitate machine recognition and authentication.”

JAMES WOJTYK

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Executive summary
Introduction and methodology

Report scope
Report objective
Geographic coverage
Methodology
Definitions and abbreviations

Banknote industry: key drivers and trends

Overview
Introduction
Global usage of cash is declining
Cash remains resilient and secure
- Emergence of Central Bank Digital currencies (CBDCs)
Environmental sustainability and lifecycle optimization
Security threats and counterfeiting
Artificial intelligence: unlocking vast potential
- Phy-gital hybrids AKA “smart” banknotes
The tariff years
Strategic acquisitions and industry transformation

Banknote design: concepts to blueprints

Overview
Role of design in the lifecycle of banknotes
- Design and pre-production
- Production and printing
- Quality control and inspection
- Distribution and circulation
- End-of-lifecyle
Banknote design: perpetual evolution
Increased security
Cultural and social reflection
Current case study: the new Euro – a five-year popularity contest
- Public input
Environmental considerations
Banknote design in 2030: meeting today’s challenges
- Designing for security
- Designing for digital coexistence and convergence
Sustainability
- Designing for durability
- End-of-life design and recycling
Banknote design: learning and knowing your client
AI and design: complementary roles
- Generative design and aesthetic innovation
- Accelerated design process
- Predictive counterfeit mitigation
- Behavioral analytics and human-centered design
- Lifecycle simulation and durability optimization
- The challenges

Banknote substrates and security feature technologies

Overview
Substrates: paper / polymer / hybrids
- Cotton-based substrates (17th century – current)
- Introduction of polymer substrates (1980s–2000s)
- Composite polymer-paper hybrids (2010s–present)
- Current substrate landscape (2020s)
Banknote substrates in 2030
- Expansion and Refinement of polymer substrates
- Rise of composite substrates
- Recycled materials, extended lifecycles
- Substrates designed for embedded digital features
- Substrate-level security features
- Real-time traceability and lifecycle monitoring
- Nanomaterial and smart material integration
Security features: overt & machine-readable
Primary security features: overt optical technologies
Case study: why 1s matters? The perception of 3D effects
- Perceiving the benefits of 3D Security features
Machine-readable security features
Tough to be unique in a niche industry: cross-cutting trends
- The coin-banknote boundary
- Integration at the substrate level
Banknote substrate and security features: challenges to 2030
- Technological obsolescence assists counterfeiters
- Machine-readable features and BEMS
- The durability of security
- Cost of innovation
- Integration complexity
- Public acceptance and usability
Banknote substrate and security features: the 2030 lifecycle
- A. Design phase
- B. Production phase
- C. Distribution and logistics
- D. Circulation and usage
- E. End-of-life management
Conclusion

Banknote lifecycle to 2030: production

Overview
“You cannot buy a banknote”: a printwork’s creed
- Banknotes are instruments of trust, not commodities
- Counterfeiting isn’t just a crime – it’s a national security threat
- High security printers must guarantee value transfer
- Central banks are custodians
- Printers create “error-free” value
Global banknote production
- Current status: 2020–25
- Future outlook: 2025–30
- Staying ahead of the counterfeiters
- Sustainable lifecycle
- The cash paradox
Banknote printing to 2030: innovative technologies
Artificial intelligence: beyond ChatGPT
- AI-designed banknote security printing patterns
- Simulation of substrate and ink interactions
- Intelligent quality control
- Predictive maintenance and workflow optimization
The case for digital printing
- Greater flexibility and customization
- Streamlined prototyping and development cycles
- Enhanced security potential
- Cost and efficiency benefits
- Challenges in adoption and Integration
Automation and smart manufacturing
- Cybersecurity essentials
Sustainability through technology
- Eco-friendly substrates
- Sustainable and secure inks
- Energy-efficient printing processes
Strategic transformation through technology and innovation

Banknote lifecycle in 2030: transforming the cash cycle

Overview
Cash cycle: the perpetual value flow
- Step 1: Central Bank issuance to commercial banks
- Step 2: distribution into the economy
- Step 3: recirculation and handling
- Step 4: destruction of unfit notes
- Step 5: reissue and replacement
The cash cycle in 2030
Challenge #1: decreasing cash usage
Cash usage: (Mis) accurate representations??
- The CIC/GDP ratio
- “Transactional cash” data
- Cash sharing measures
Hoarding and off-shoring
Challenge #2: reducing operational costs
- Cash access and the ATM landscape
- Growing ATM networks
- Energy-efficiency
- Data-driven optimization
  - Increased cash recycling points
- Banknote recirculation and fitness sorting automation
Challenge #3: smarter counterfeiting threats
Scenario : the cash cycle and a counterfeiting crisis
- Case #1: advanced economies
  - Surge in digital payment adoption
  - Increased government support for digital infrastructure
  - Greater scrutiny of anti-fraud capabilities in digital platforms
- Case #2: emerging market economies
  - Slower and more fragmented shift to digital payments
  - Economic disruption in the informal sector
  - Limited institutional capacity to respond
  - Opportunity for leapfrogging—if managed well
Banknote transportation: streamlining movement
Secure logistics networks
Centralized vs distributed issuance models
A banknote’s end of life: fueling a new beginning
- Evolving practices
- Recycling and reuse – a circular economy?
The future of the cash cycle: analytics
- Optimizing currency distribution and inventory management
- Forecasting demand through AI and machine learning
- Enhancing ATM and Cash-in-transit efficiency
- Lifecycle management and banknote durability
- Policy development and access to cash
- Integrating physical and digital currency metrics
- Vendor oversight and ecosystem management
Conclusion

Banknote lifecycle in 2030: global outlooks

Overview
Western Europe
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Eurozone
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Eastern Europe
- Design and substrate
- Printing and production
- Circulation and public use
- Sorting and fitness
- End-of-life and recycling
North America
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
South & Central America
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Asia-Pacific
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Australia
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability
Africa
- Design and substrate
- Production and manufacturing
- Circulation and use
- Sorting, fitness, and reissuance
- End-of-life and sustainability